What Are They Holding?
Given a number of players, what’s the chance someone at the table has at least a pair, two pair, trips, or better by the river? These two models tell very different stories.
Based on 100,000 simulated 6-player hands. About 23.47% of trials had only one player left (an uncontested pot).
Why the two models differ: “Everyone sees the river” assumes no one ever folds — every player at the table gets a full 5-card board to work with, so the odds of somebody making a strong hand climb fast as the table fills up. “Realistic folding” applies a positional folding model instead: weaker hands fold before the flop, which shrinks the field and actually lowers the chance that a big hand shows up, since fewer hole cards are still live.
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