Methodology
Odds The Law is a probability and strategy explainer, not a betting tool. Every dataset on this site is produced by an offline data-generation script using Monte Carlo simulation and a validated poker hand evaluator, then shipped as static data. This page explains how, in plain language.
The datasets
- Preflop hand equity — all 169 starting hand classes simulated against random opponents at every player count from 2 to 9.
- Hand-type frequency — how often each poker hand category (pair through straight flush) shows up at a table, both assuming everyone plays to the river and under a more realistic folding model.
- Positional profitability — simulated bb/100 win rate by seat, showing how much of poker’s “position edge” comes from range selection versus postflop advantage.
Frequently asked questions
- How are the odds calculated?
- Every number on Odds The Law comes from a Monte Carlo simulation run offline: millions of random hands are dealt and evaluated with a standard poker hand evaluator, and the resulting win/tie/loss rates are stored as static data. Nothing is computed live in your browser, so results load instantly and stay consistent between visits.
- Why is this more than "beat the odds"?
- The goal is to make the underlying math visible and explorable, the way a stats-explainer site would -- not to suggest a way to gain an edge over a casino or another site. Poker outcomes are governed by probability, and that probability is what this site visualizes.
- What is the Chen Formula?
- The Chen Formula is a well-known quick-scoring heuristic (by Bill Chen) for estimating a starting hand’s strength from its two hole cards. Odds The Law uses it as a simplified decision rule to model realistic folding behavior and positional ranges in a couple of the simulated datasets -- it is not the source of the equity numbers themselves, which come from full Monte Carlo simulation.
- How accurate are the numbers?
- Preflop equity figures are generated from at least 50,000 simulated hands per starting-hand-class-and-player-count combination (more for pairs and commonly searched hands), which keeps sampling error well under a percentage point for most figures. The site’s data-generation script includes automated sanity checks (e.g. win/tie/loss percentages summing to ~100%) before any data ships.