How risky is your hand size?
Roll a 7 while holding 8 or more cards and you discard half, rounded down. 7 is also the single most common roll — 16.7% of the time, more than any other number — which is exactly why this rule bites as often as it does.
At risk right now
4
cards you’d discard if a 7 comes up before your next turn
Any single roll has a flat 16.7% chance of being a 7, regardless of hand size — what changes is only whether it costs you anything.
Odds a 7 hits before you act again
If your hand size stays at 9 or more, here’s the chance at least one 7 lands within the next N rolls (not just your own — everyone’s).
1 roll
17%
2 rolls
31%
3 rolls
42%
5 rolls
60%
8 rolls
77%
10 rolls
84%
Exact complement math: the chance of no 7 in N rolls is (30/36)N, so the chance of at least one is 1 minus that. By 8 rolls — roughly two trips around the table at four players — it’s already past 77%.