Hard 13 against a dealer 2
This is one of the closest decisions in blackjack. Stand is correct, but it beats hit by 1.50% of your bet — and of the 350 hand-versus-upcard spots on the chart, only 13 are closer.
Worth being blunt about what that expected return means: at -29.3%, you lose money on this hand in the long run whatever you do. Playing it correctly does not make it a good spot — it makes it a 1.50% less bad one. The choice is between two losing options, which is exactly why it gets argued about.
Every option, ranked
| Action | Expected return | Cost vs. best |
|---|---|---|
| Standcorrect | -29.28% | — |
| Hit | -30.78% | −1.50% |
| Double | -61.56% | −32.28% |
Expected return per unit staked, from an exact recursive engine rather than a copied chart. Figures are for Dealer Stands on Soft 17, DAS, pays 3:2. Actions not shown are not legal here.
The house rules do not change it
For all the argument this hand attracts, the answer is stable: every one of the 6 rule sets modelled gives the same correct play. What changes is how much it costs you, not what to do.
| S17 · 3:2 | Stand | -29.3% |
| H17 · 3:2 | Stand | -28.6% |
| S17 · Surrender | Stand | -29.3% |
| S17 · No DAS | Stand | -29.3% |
| S17 · No Peek | Stand | -29.3% |
| S17 · 6:5 | Stand | -29.3% |
Why it is close
Taking a card on hard 13 busts you 38.46% of the time. Standing hands the hand to a dealer showing 2, who — having already checked and not got blackjack — busts 35.4% of the time. Two bad numbers close together is the whole story — the decision is a choice between them, and neither rescues the hand. The bust odds page has both curves in full.
What the count does to this
Stand is correct at a neutral shoe, but not at every shoe. The two actions are worth exactly the same at a Hi-Lo true count of −1.06, so past that point hit is the better play — a deviation conventionally written as an index of −1.
This one is on Schlesinger’s Illustrious 18, the deviations that return the most to a counter, where it carries an index of −1 — the same number this engine arrives at independently.
Where that number comes from, and what one card of each rank is actually worth, is on the card counting page.