Hard 16 against a dealer Ace
Hit beats stand by 14.99% of your bet. That is a clear enough gap that the play is not really in doubt — this hand is here because the answer changes with the house rules, which the table below sets out.
Worth being blunt about what that expected return means: at -51.7%, you lose money on this hand in the long run whatever you do. Playing it correctly does not make it a good spot — it makes it a 14.99% less bad one. The choice is between two losing options.
Every option, ranked
| Action | Expected return | Cost vs. best |
|---|---|---|
| Hitcorrect | -51.71% | — |
| Stand | -66.70% | −14.99% |
| Double | -103.43% | −51.72% |
Expected return per unit staked, from an exact recursive engine rather than a copied chart. Figures are for Dealer Stands on Soft 17, DAS, pays 3:2. Actions not shown are not legal here.
It genuinely depends on the house rules
“It depends” is usually a dodge. Here it is literally true: under 1 of the 6 rule sets modelled, the correct play is something other than hit.
| S17 · 3:2 | Hit | -51.7% |
| H17 · 3:2 | Hit | -54.2% |
| S17 · Surrender | Surrender | -50.0% |
| S17 · No DAS | Hit | -51.7% |
| S17 · No Peek | Hit | -51.7% |
| S17 · 6:5 | Hit | -51.7% |
Why it is close
Taking a card on hard 16 busts you 61.54% of the time. Standing hands the hand to a dealer showing Ace, who — having already checked and not got blackjack — busts 16.7% of the time. Two bad numbers close together is the whole story — the decision is a choice between them, and neither rescues the hand. The bust odds page has both curves in full.
What the count does to this
Hit is correct at a neutral shoe, but not at every shoe. The two actions are worth exactly the same at a Hi-Lo true count of +8.74, so past that point stand is the better play — a deviation conventionally written as an index of +9.
Where that number comes from, and what one card of each rank is actually worth, is on the card counting page.