Hard 16 against a dealer 10
This is one of the closest decisions in blackjack. Hit is correct, but it beats stand by 0.06% of your bet — and nothing else on the chart is closer, out of all 350 hand-versus-upcard spots.
Worth being blunt about what that expected return means: at -54.0%, you lose money on this hand in the long run whatever you do. Playing it correctly does not make it a good spot — it makes it a 0.06% less bad one. The choice is between two losing options, which is exactly why it gets argued about.
Every option, ranked
| Action | Expected return | Cost vs. best |
|---|---|---|
| Hitcorrect | -53.98% | — |
| Stand | -54.04% | −0.06% |
| Double | -107.97% | −53.99% |
Expected return per unit staked, from an exact recursive engine rather than a copied chart. Figures are for Dealer Stands on Soft 17, DAS, pays 3:2. Actions not shown are not legal here.
It genuinely depends on the house rules
“It depends” is usually a dodge. Here it is literally true: under 1 of the 6 rule sets modelled, the correct play is something other than hit.
| S17 · 3:2 | Hit | -54.0% |
| H17 · 3:2 | Hit | -54.0% |
| S17 · Surrender | Surrender | -50.0% |
| S17 · No DAS | Hit | -54.0% |
| S17 · No Peek | Hit | -54.0% |
| S17 · 6:5 | Hit | -54.0% |
Why it is close
Taking a card on hard 16 busts you 61.54% of the time. Standing hands the hand to a dealer showing 10, who — having already checked and not got blackjack — busts 23.0% of the time. Two bad numbers close together is the whole story — the decision is a choice between them, and neither rescues the hand. The bust odds page has both curves in full.
What the count does to this
Hit is correct at a neutral shoe, but not at every shoe. The two actions are worth exactly the same at a Hi-Lo true count of +0.44, so past that point stand is the better play — a deviation conventionally written as an index of 0.
This one is on Schlesinger’s Illustrious 18, the deviations that return the most to a counter, where it carries an index of 0 — the same number this engine arrives at independently.
Where that number comes from, and what one card of each rank is actually worth, is on the card counting page.