Soft 15 against a dealer 4
This is one of the closest decisions in blackjack. Hit is correct, but it beats double by 0.09% of your bet — and of the 350 hand-versus-upcard spots on the chart, only 1 is closer.
Every option, ranked
| Action | Expected return | Cost vs. best |
|---|---|---|
| Hitcorrect | 5.93% | — |
| Double | 5.84% | −0.09% |
| Stand | -21.11% | −27.04% |
Expected return per unit staked, from an exact recursive engine rather than a copied chart. Figures are for Dealer Stands on Soft 17, DAS, pays 3:2. Actions not shown are not legal here.
It genuinely depends on the house rules
“It depends” is usually a dodge. Here it is literally true: under 1 of the 6 rule sets modelled, the correct play is something other than hit.
| S17 · 3:2 | Hit | 5.9% |
| H17 · 3:2 | Double | 6.1% |
| S17 · Surrender | Hit | 5.9% |
| S17 · No DAS | Hit | 5.9% |
| S17 · No Peek | Hit | 5.9% |
| S17 · 6:5 | Hit | 5.9% |
Why it is close
Standing hands the hand to a dealer showing 4, who — having already checked and not got blackjack — busts 39.4% of the time. Two bad numbers close together is the whole story — the decision is a choice between them, and neither rescues the hand. The bust odds page has both curves in full.
What the count does to this
Double is correct at a neutral shoe, but not at every shoe. The two actions are worth exactly the same at a Hi-Lo true count of −0.19, so past that point hit is the better play — a deviation conventionally written as an index of 0.
Where that number comes from, and what one card of each rank is actually worth, is on the card counting page.