Pair of 3s against a dealer 3
Split beats hit by 4.34% of your bet. That is a clear enough gap that the play is not really in doubt — this hand is here because the answer changes with the house rules, which the table below sets out.
Worth being blunt about what that expected return means: at -6.4%, you lose money on this hand in the long run whatever you do. Playing it correctly does not make it a good spot — it makes it a 4.34% less bad one. The choice is between two losing options.
Every option, ranked
| Action | Expected return | Cost vs. best |
|---|---|---|
| Splitcorrect | -6.39% | — |
| Hit | -10.73% | −4.34% |
| Stand | -25.23% | −18.84% |
| Double | -48.37% | −41.98% |
Expected return per unit staked, from an exact recursive engine rather than a copied chart. Figures are for Dealer Stands on Soft 17, DAS, pays 3:2. Actions not shown are not legal here.
It genuinely depends on the house rules
“It depends” is usually a dodge. Here it is literally true: under 1 of the 6 rule sets modelled, the correct play is something other than split.
| S17 · 3:2 | Split | -6.4% |
| H17 · 3:2 | Split | -6.1% |
| S17 · Surrender | Split | -6.4% |
| S17 · No DAS | Hit | -10.7% |
| S17 · No Peek | Split | -6.4% |
| S17 · 6:5 | Split | -6.4% |
Why it is close
Standing hands the hand to a dealer showing 3, who — having already checked and not got blackjack — busts 37.4% of the time. Two bad numbers close together is the whole story — the decision is a choice between them, and neither rescues the hand. The bust odds page has both curves in full.
What the count does to this
Split is correct at a neutral shoe, but not at every shoe. The two actions are worth exactly the same at a Hi-Lo true count of −4.73, so past that point hit is the better play — a deviation conventionally written as an index of −5.
Where that number comes from, and what one card of each rank is actually worth, is on the card counting page.