Pair of 4s against a dealer 6
Split beats hit by 3.10% of your bet. That is a clear enough gap that the play is not really in doubt — this hand is here because the answer changes with the house rules, which the table below sets out.
Every option, ranked
| Action | Expected return | Cost vs. best |
|---|---|---|
| Splitcorrect | 14.60% | — |
| Hit | 11.50% | −3.10% |
| Double | 8.70% | −5.90% |
| Stand | -15.37% | −29.97% |
Expected return per unit staked, from an exact recursive engine rather than a copied chart. Figures are for Dealer Stands on Soft 17, DAS, pays 3:2. Actions not shown are not legal here.
It genuinely depends on the house rules
“It depends” is usually a dodge. Here it is literally true: under 1 of the 6 rule sets modelled, the correct play is something other than split.
| S17 · 3:2 | Split | 14.6% |
| H17 · 3:2 | Split | 17.6% |
| S17 · Surrender | Split | 14.6% |
| S17 · No DAS | Hit | 11.5% |
| S17 · No Peek | Split | 14.6% |
| S17 · 6:5 | Split | 14.6% |
Why it is close
Standing hands the hand to a dealer showing 6, who — having already checked and not got blackjack — busts 42.3% of the time. Two bad numbers close together is the whole story — the decision is a choice between them, and neither rescues the hand. The bust odds page has both curves in full.
What the count does to this
Split is correct at a neutral shoe, but not at every shoe. The two actions are worth exactly the same at a Hi-Lo true count of +10.03, so past that point double is the better play — a deviation conventionally written as an index of +10.
Where that number comes from, and what one card of each rank is actually worth, is on the card counting page.